Problem 14.24 Easy Free

Mean of the Exponential Martingale

Let X∼N(0,1)X \sim \mathcal{N}(0,1) and fix a real constant θ\theta. Define Z=eθX−θ2/2Z = e^{\theta X - \theta^2/2}. Find E[Z]\mathbb{E}[Z].

Work it out, then compare with the answer.

SolutionShow the worked solution

Since θ\theta is a constant, E[Z]=e−θ2/2 E[eθX]\mathbb{E}[Z] = e^{-\theta^2/2}\,\mathbb{E}[e^{\theta X}], so it is enough to compute the moment generating function of XX. Complete the square in the exponent:

θx−x22=−12(x−θ)2+θ22.\theta x - \tfrac{x^2}{2} = -\tfrac12 (x-\theta)^2 + \tfrac{\theta^2}{2}.

Then

E[eθX]=∫−∞∞eθx 12πe−x2/2 dx=eθ2/2∫−∞∞12πe−(x−θ)2/2 dx=eθ2/2.\mathbb{E}[e^{\theta X}] = \int_{-\infty}^{\infty} e^{\theta x}\,\frac{1}{\sqrt{2\pi}}e^{-x^2/2}\,dx = e^{\theta^2/2}\int_{-\infty}^{\infty} \frac{1}{\sqrt{2\pi}}e^{-(x-\theta)^2/2}\,dx = e^{\theta^2/2}.

The last integral equals 11 because its integrand is the N(θ,1)\mathcal{N}(\theta,1) density. Therefore

E[Z]=e−θ2/2 eθ2/2=1.\mathbb{E}[Z] = e^{-\theta^2/2}\,e^{\theta^2/2} = 1.
E[Z]=1 for every θ∈R\boxed{\mathbb{E}[Z] = 1 \text{ for every } \theta\in\mathbb{R}}

Key idea. Multiplying the N(0,1)\mathcal{N}(0,1) density by eθx−θ2/2e^{\theta x-\theta^2/2} gives exactly the N(θ,1)\mathcal{N}(\theta,1) density. So ZZ is a likelihood ratio, and its mean is 11. This is the one-step version of the exponential martingale eθWt−θ2t/2e^{\theta W_t-\theta^2 t/2} and of the Girsanov change of measure.